Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2e17a3be697512063506adfdb2e72712bb1bcdbb454a05bb9eb24598094e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 7,068$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,758.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Under | 0c | 2,396$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 20c | 1,589$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.73 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 7c | 1,200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 32c | 1,089$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.74 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 67c | 1,086$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.87 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 19c | 762.01$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.81 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 74c | 668.54$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.75 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 26c | 616.63$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.79 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 75c | 600$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 25c | 600$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Over | 68c | 558.51$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.72 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 399.66$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.64 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 27c | 371.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.17 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 342.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.39 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Over | 6c | 260.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 21c | 197.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 20c | 167.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.04 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Over | 20c | 78.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 26c | 45.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 80c | 31.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.