Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c03a21547b0cbaa5b36f97f20b7f5528bce67868f243c3ad7f9ed858e84af72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 11,109$4,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,338.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 60c | 5,161$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.86 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 74c | 2,455$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.3 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 2,326$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.52 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 45c | 1,637$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Under | 3c | 1,357$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Over | 73c | 1,250$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…b5ccbacked Over | 74c | 1,250$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 77c | 1,144$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.66 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 1,030$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.02 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 74c | 675.71$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.71 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 43c | 600$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.03 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 46c | 560.75$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.85 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 51c | 460.53$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.66 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 424.45$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.41 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf1…8de8backed Over | 74c | 379.73$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 26c | 336.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd94…c56cbacked Under | 52c | 334.08$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 28c | 321.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Over | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 25c | 221.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 200.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.35 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed Under | 59c | 188.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c7…f049backed Over | 74c | 185.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3f…753cbacked Over | 74c | 155.89$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…450abacked Over | 42c | 155.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Under | 20c | 153.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Under | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…1fdbbacked Under | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 130.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Under | 28c | 107.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…1bf2backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Over | 71c | 77.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Under | 60c | 73.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 73c | 68.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 40c | 52.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 46c | 46.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 44c | 39.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Under | 28c | 38.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…07fcbacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 73c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.