Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a2e18699f41b020adb570020ea7e9bba2b2444fb6c3ec74c4d11fa4872c0a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 1,381$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 446.78$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 52c | 432$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.36 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 28c | 316.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 28c | 212.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.24 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 51c | 164.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…1bf2backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…b2e7backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…7e9ebacked No | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…6303backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…89b5backed Yes | 55c | 80.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…418bbacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…c27ebacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…bfe8backed Yes | 55c | 51.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 46c | 43.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…cd03backed Yes | 29c | 42.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +246.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b3…5c29backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed No | 75c | 17.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.