Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bbd2e7d863300c9f2d7e8b9a786f3cf9c57cd371bba18cbea6c0e53533ce594
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 12c | 1,012$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Under | 39c | 700.91$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.42 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 51c | 680.62$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 73c | 500$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.16 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 58c | 472.6$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.44 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Under | 51c | 440.86$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 14c | 361.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 278.48$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 273.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 46c | 205.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 175.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Under | 47c | 170.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 145.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 11c | 116.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Over | 50c | 106.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 59cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Over | 53c | 97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 35c | 71.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 67.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 44c | 64.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf675…dfbfbacked Over | 32c | 62.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 51c | 22.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.