TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$375,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$389,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,064 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Under54c295,542$159,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159,365.212832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Over46c100,000$46,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,0001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over45c79,834$36,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,510.411,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Over47c24,444$11,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,077.542365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over46c22,206$10,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,956.2378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over46c11,630$5,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,236.342,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over47c8,828$4,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,678.857062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Over47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,383.112857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e2…b0a7backed Over47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6502100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+81%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Over47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6501050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over45c4,805$2,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,625.883,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3926…7e9ebacked Over48c4,200$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+68.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fe8…3549backed Under52c3,694$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.91520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-70.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9371…3aecbacked Under1c3,139$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3880%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5907057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5906459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over48c2,140$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.817251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under3c2,038$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.152437.5%9 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.27per pick10cpaid+187.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over46c2,000$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.9211056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over47c1,833$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.5533244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under53c1,509$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Over47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Over39c1,500$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over47c1,256$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.151,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over48c1,250$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6508248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over46c1,200$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64834144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over46c1,146$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.8431145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c0…6660backed Under1c1,118$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadec…88fdbacked Over47c1,025$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under52c1,002$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.2316850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over20c999.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.652045%9 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+166.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Under59c955.82$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.694526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over20c935.09$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.196761.2%41 W · 26 L+13.8wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.3322747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over48c817.78$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.2556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over47c800$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4248764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Over46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43215024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over74c690$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.46366.7%42 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Over48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3251457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under67c617.2$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.041,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over49c561.22$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.223455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over48c540$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.85052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Over49c530$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.31464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.063053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over47c500$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2634141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Over46c494.3$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.921250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over49c430.41$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.626659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over47c420$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.622854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over47c420$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.615454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over47c420$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.68864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21224258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over45c389$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.959459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Over48c358$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c2e…9e01backed Under55c357.83$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.641758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdf6…773bbacked Over17c352.94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.942157.1%12 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+75.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over47c330$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.913957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over47c330$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.914355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over47c314$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.4222829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15911860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15912162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Over47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1591957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13cb…f258backed Over49c296.73$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over47c250$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.58461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Over19c250$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.57439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over47c250$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.512858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over47c250$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba77…da86backed Over49c245.93$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.484100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc36…180fbacked Over49c244.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Over45c233.33$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3320545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over47c228.4$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.0530054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over47c220$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.612757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Over46c215.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.933369.7%23 W · 10 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Over47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.772466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10bc…76bebacked Over36c211.49$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+122.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed Over48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.337857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.332774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Over48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.333959%23 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under78c208$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under59c204.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9916542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1068952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10613256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f65…cdd3backed Over47c200$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1072568%17 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Over45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over30c196.9$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.4951136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked Over48c194.86$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.331353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over47c190$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.79659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over47c180$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.48261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over47c180$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.412356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over47c170$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.111458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over47c170$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.16556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over47c170$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.113859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over47c170$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.111259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over47c170$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.112458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over47c170$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.16460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over47c170$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.112358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked Over49c167.16$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.044040%16 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Over48c154$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.082748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Under54c153.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8334547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa388…511fbacked Over49c151.2$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.111080%8 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.