Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf72f65000cd39d12fbf584294b09ab369507cab9c82c8d43229f0b8a3b62047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Level UPof Level UP, RE.Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Level UP | 74c | 1,906$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.88 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed RE.Arise | 25c | 1,212$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc5…c07dbacked RE.Arise | 43c | 1,200$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.87 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6e9dbacked RE.Arise | 29c | 1,051$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 252 | 46.8%118 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked RE.Arise | 29c | 1,022$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Level UP | 60c | 999.99$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…db43backed RE.Arise | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked RE.Arise | 30c | 639.72$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.92 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Level UP | 66c | 457.33$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.83 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked RE.Arise | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Level UP | 70c | 340.43$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Level UP | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Level UP | 75c | 318.67$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed Level UP | 49c | 298.66$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Level UP | 74c | 281.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…54fcbacked RE.Arise | 50c | 236$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed RE.Arise | 15c | 217.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked RE.Arise | 33c | 206.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed RE.Arise | 41c | 184.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed RE.Arise | 51c | 168$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked RE.Arise | 15c | 149.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Level UP | 61c | 132.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise | 27c | 124.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…22acbacked Level UP | 74c | 124.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Level UP | 73c | 120.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed RE.Arise | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked RE.Arise | 40c | 111.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Level UP | 64c | 107.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed RE.Arise | 27c | 104.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 31c | 103.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Level UP | 67c | 100.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Level UP | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Level UP | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed RE.Arise | 44c | 98.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Level UP | 52c | 96.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…affdbacked Level UP | 50c | 89.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabef…5c2ebacked Level UP | 60c | 89.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked RE.Arise | 26c | 82.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Level UP | 80c | 80.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…cd45backed RE.Arise | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed RE.Arise | 25c | 72.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…4f46backed RE.Arise | 39c | 71.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4038…35e4backed RE.Arise | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Level UP | 70c | 53.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed RE.Arise | 44c | 52.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e8…f707backed RE.Arise | 49c | 51.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked Level UP | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Level UP | 68c | 45.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked RE.Arise | 23c | 43.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…ff90backed RE.Arise | 29c | 38.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked RE.Arise | 32c | 33.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Level UP | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked RE.Arise | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Level UP | 74c | 28.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Level UP | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed RE.Arise | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Level UP | 74c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Level UP | 70c | 18.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff5…0147backed Level UP | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise (BO3) - EPL Masters Group BLevel UP won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise - Game 2 WinnerLevel UP won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.