Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise - Game 2 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4719a595ec14449d4afb830e3272a0811b93b1cf7b56a75ea6ee8bbc372640f8

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Level UPof Level UP, RE.Arise
Resolved: Aug 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $57,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,139 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8dc5…c07dbacked Level UP	63c	2,000$1,259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$740.89	122	63.1%77 W · 45 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Level UP	77c	1,948$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.03	480	57.1%274 W · 206 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed RE.Arise	24c	1,316$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321	192	51%98 W · 94 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked RE.Arise	40c	1,031$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412	252	46.8%118 W · 134 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Level UP	65c	999.99$650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	507	69.2%351 W · 156 L	+33.7wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed RE.Arise	33c	899.14$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked RE.Arise	46c	877.78$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.84	538	44.4%239 W · 299 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7a…8238backed RE.Arise	35c	779.26$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.44	77	35.1%27 W · 50 L	-5.2wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed Level UP	67c	743.98$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.98	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Level UP	56c	606.4$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.24	798	59%471 W · 327 L	+16.1wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked RE.Arise	9c	568.82$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.19	406	44.6%181 W · 225 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed RE.Arise	38c	526.3$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	181	52.5%95 W · 86 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed RE.Arise	22c	522.5$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.38	276	36.2%100 W · 176 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed RE.Arise	3c	441.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	437	38.4%168 W · 269 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d6…6bf4backed RE.Arise	48c	440.48$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	135	53.3%72 W · 63 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked RE.Arise	44c	409.82$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.02	966	45.1%436 W · 530 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Level UP	60c	374.49$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.26	700	52.3%366 W · 334 L	+47.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Level UP	64c	344.03$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.42	203	50.7%103 W · 100 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed RE.Arise	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	502	47.6%239 W · 263 L	+31.6wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6155…808ebacked RE.Arise	30c	299.98$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.99	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Level UP	61c	285.63$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.63	466	64.2%299 W · 167 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x127d…4706backed Level UP	72c	274.59$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.47	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed RE.Arise	39c	261.59$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.03	172	49.4%85 W · 87 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise	35c	251.42$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.36	1,901	47.6%905 W · 996 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Level UP	61c	246.92$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.92	122	52.5%64 W · 58 L	+17.2wins	+0.14per pick	38cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise	38c	236.89$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	372	53%197 W · 175 L	+14.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise	30c	235.57$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.06	892	38.1%340 W · 552 L	-42.7wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked RE.Arise	45c	232.86$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	91	45.1%41 W · 50 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf52e…54fcbacked RE.Arise	46c	223.99$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.04	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Level UP	54c	218.26$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.83	899	38%342 W · 557 L	-45.9wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed RE.Arise	15c	217.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.69	785	16.6%130 W · 655 L	-135.4wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed Level UP	58c	214.06$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.57	214	47.2%101 W · 113 L	+16.7wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Level UP	66c	214.03$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.59	108	33.3%36 W · 72 L	-13.4wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked RE.Arise	39c	213.15$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	281	45.6%128 W · 153 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise	29c	212.78$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.67	1,702	41.2%701 W · 1,001 L	-44.0wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Level UP	65c	210.75$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.25	793	41.7%331 W · 462 L	-13.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fe…e21fbacked Level UP	65c	209.23$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.42	81	53.1%43 W · 38 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Level UP	48c	208.18$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.18	139	43.9%61 W · 78 L	-11.8wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf206…df39backed RE.Arise	39c	205.13$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	169	63.3%107 W · 62 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0868…efe8backed RE.Arise	13c	200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Level UP	62c	199.99$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76	881	66.7%588 W · 293 L	+76.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked RE.Arise	46c	191.58$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.12	920	56.4%519 W · 401 L	+78.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Level UP	61c	185.01$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.08	813	45.1%367 W · 446 L	-26.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2965…89ebbacked Level UP	72c	172.7$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.66	102	51%52 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Level UP	69c	172.24$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.76	626	50.5%316 W · 310 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed RE.Arise	49c	154.16$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.73	420	53.6%225 W · 195 L	+16.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed RE.Arise	53c	150$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.5	241	38.6%93 W · 148 L	-18.0wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed RE.Arise	28c	146.25$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.27	1,120	36.1%404 W · 716 L	-39.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked RE.Arise	39c	131.27$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.19	215	58.6%126 W · 89 L	+11.8wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed RE.Arise	36c	128.83$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.73	416	32.7%136 W · 280 L	-37.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RE.Arise	41c	120.16$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.33	915	53.3%488 W · 427 L	+48.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Level UP	60c	109.6$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.84	535	38.5%206 W · 329 L	-26.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x762a…ed42backed RE.Arise	38c	105.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	85	32.9%28 W · 57 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x431a…50d7backed Level UP	60c	101.83$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.39	213	44.1%94 W · 119 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Level UP	61c	100$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	675	55%371 W · 304 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed RE.Arise	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	324	45.1%146 W · 178 L	+14.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cc…ad4cbacked Level UP	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	106	35.8%38 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked RE.Arise	19c	89.22$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	405	34.6%140 W · 265 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked RE.Arise	30c	87.64$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	683	45.8%313 W · 370 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Level UP	60c	86.15$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.8	426	39.4%168 W · 258 L	-39.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed RE.Arise	25c	74$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	645	47.8%308 W · 337 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed RE.Arise	30c	72.29$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	138	27.5%38 W · 100 L	-15.0wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4078…a7f7backed Level UP	55c	70$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.55	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked RE.Arise	45c	69.85$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.14	508	50.8%258 W · 250 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked RE.Arise	38c	65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.81	1,280	45%576 W · 704 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed RE.Arise	51c	64.65$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.02	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94e8…f707backed RE.Arise	49c	59.18$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed RE.Arise	39c	58.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.05	93	51.6%48 W · 45 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d3…7fd3backed RE.Arise	56c	55.76$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked RE.Arise	18c	55.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	186	52.2%97 W · 89 L	+9.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed RE.Arise	52c	53.81$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	426	60.1%256 W · 170 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Level UP	66c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	546	59.7%326 W · 220 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked RE.Arise	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked RE.Arise	27c	47.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked Level UP	64c	45.23$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	80	55%44 W · 36 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Level UP	57c	43$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.39	589	43%253 W · 336 L	-25.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed RE.Arise	37c	42.06$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.56	286	50%143 W · 143 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked RE.Arise	36c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	669	47.1%315 W · 354 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a08…ebdcbacked Level UP	58c	39.17$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.45	86	39.5%34 W · 52 L	-5.4wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Level UP	57c	35.63$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.32	656	25.6%168 W · 488 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed RE.Arise	52c	35.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.28	125	59.2%74 W · 51 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Level UP	57c	29.88$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	213	44.1%94 W · 119 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Level UP	58c	27.81$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.76	569	45.2%257 W · 312 L	-18.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…71cebacked Level UP	64c	23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.28	133	48.1%64 W · 69 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed RE.Arise	54c	20.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	195	47.2%92 W · 103 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ace…3038backed Level UP	61c	17.33$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.77	235	62.1%146 W · 89 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise - Game 2 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise (BO3) - EPL Masters Group BLevel UP won
Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise - Game 1 WinnerLevel UP won
Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise - Game 2 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event