Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa613d86883438ab1a9a2b84feebf260117157e1225ae377e08092863541353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 4,119$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 3,512$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 1c | 3,177$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,756$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,645$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 1c | 2,046$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 1,772$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,529$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,353$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 1c | 1,254$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes | 4c | 1,013$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 2c | 946.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Yes | 2c | 945.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 2c | 806.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9adbbacked Yes | 2c | 764.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 9c | 682.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 642$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 7c | 494.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 5c | 486.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 5c | 385$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 3c | 366.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 4c | 302.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 9c | 296.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…9889backed Yes | 4c | 282.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 7c | 253.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…45d2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.