Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ebffbce82c272a042877750d29580b2f8b056b64a8cf888043066b26b380646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 3,441$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,183.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,096$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.32 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,661$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.62 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 7c | 1,470$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,319$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.5 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 77c | 1,240$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 1,185$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.38 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 1,141$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 1,055$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.78 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 875.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.31 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 750$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.75 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 719.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 9c | 699.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.41 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 642$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 5c | 641.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.97 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 2c | 554.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 55c | 532.73$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.76 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 524.95$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…c3efbacked Yes | 4c | 501.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.45 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes | 4c | 401.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.66 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 12c | 401.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.45 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 72c | 401.13$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 29c | 386.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.97 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 35c | 364.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.94 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 335.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.51 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…2f93backed Yes | 7c | 330.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 328.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.63 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…8367backed Yes | 14c | 327.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 20c | 311.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.59 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 6c | 310$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 42c | 303.37$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.04 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 9c | 301.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 283.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 9c | 272.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.33 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 5c | 267.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.35 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 7c | 264.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.56 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 11c | 234.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.05 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…9731backed Yes | 19c | 226$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…845ebacked Yes | 10c | 225.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 7c | 210.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 207.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 14c | 199.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 8c | 194.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.61 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 9c | 194.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.64 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9adbbacked Yes | 7c | 184.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 21c | 168$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 52c | 163.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 65c | 153.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.56 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 149.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 11c | 149.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…4b45backed Yes | 10c | 145.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 7c | 142.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 9c | 140.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 25c | 131.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 129.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…4eaabacked Yes | 9c | 120.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,067.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 11c | 107.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 40c | 106.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…02febacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…0fe3backed No | 76c | 98.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 24c | 98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 42c | 69.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2a…f1d6backed Yes | 22c | 63.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 48c | 53.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 68c | 47.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…2b4cbacked Yes | 46c | 40.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…6375backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 52c | 28.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 21.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 65c | 18.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed No | 62c | 18.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0935…1eaabacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.