Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54f1b47b37cedf40eaf1347760e95af85939a652cf70821c580a0e47d857e182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef10…97edbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,347$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 0c | 3,535$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4d…472dbacked Yes | 29c | 2,654$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 2,628$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 70c | 2,199$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.23 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…a29fbacked No | 71c | 1,354$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78c…3530backed No | 71c | 1,300$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 29c | 1,187$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.01 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 3c | 995$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 12c | 748.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 641.02$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 424.41$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 44c | 414.89$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.39 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 395.2$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 56c | 388.33$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 366.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 360.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 18c | 358.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.05 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 50c | 345.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.46 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 56c | 315.9$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.71 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 58c | 309.01$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.97 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 296.58$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…e1efbacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 50c | 285$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 43c | 284.34$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 73c | 277.72$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 16c | 274.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed No | 35c | 268.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…182bbacked Yes | 54c | 223.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 222.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 221.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 48c | 216.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 25c | 215.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…b9e5backed Yes | 36c | 213.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 72c | 203.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed No | 64c | 201$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 200.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x763b…4777backed Yes | 66c | 199.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ed…98a8backed Yes | 26c | 194.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 188.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 186$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 34c | 184.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 39c | 175.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 171.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 168.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…1ff9backed Yes | 62c | 160.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 34c | 150.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 16c | 150.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 69c | 149.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 15c | 147.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 68c | 144.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 31c | 139.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 64c | 133.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 28c | 118.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked No | 78c | 112.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed No | 62c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 72c | 108.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 21c | 101.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…5005backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 18c | 96.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…a5b1backed Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 28c | 81.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 79.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 79.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 22c | 78.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 68c | 77.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 73.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…2f93backed Yes | 30c | 73.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 71.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 16c | 70.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 71c | 67.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…0a6ebacked Yes | 73c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 28c | 64.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…0a7fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed Yes | 78c | 63.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 80c | 62.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 72c | 61.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 68c | 58.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 20c | 56.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed No | 39c | 51.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 51.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…2b4cbacked Yes | 61c | 49.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ded…a789backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked Yes | 35c | 43.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 71c | 42.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 72c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed Yes | 39c | 39.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.