Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2dcd6888eacdb5dc84233743a2fa9852efbdd88c316e1ef9c2ff6cdbadf2873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed Yes | 35c | 14,500$5,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,075 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed No | 65c | 14,500$9,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,075 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 41c | 1,517$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.59 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 60c | 1,485$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.68 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 816.34$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 46c | 752.1$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.45 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 35c | 702.48$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 78c | 644.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 642$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 636.07$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.13 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 21c | 560.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 35c | 489.82$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.39 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 455.13$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.81 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 54c | 416.59$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.91 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 44c | 408.42$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.92 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 15c | 384.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 61c | 379.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 67c | 337.26$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…67d8backed Yes | 45c | 335.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 331.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 322.32$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 49c | 303.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.97 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 21c | 302.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 39c | 302.01$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.27 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 43c | 286.54$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 31c | 284.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 73c | 269.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770d…c94fbacked Yes | 38c | 264.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 260.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb103…1745backed Yes | 47c | 234.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 32c | 230$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 222.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 9c | 221.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 65c | 219.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.39 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 42c | 195.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 31c | 192.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 24c | 188.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 58c | 181.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 40c | 159.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 158.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 36c | 156.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 39c | 153.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x763b…4777backed Yes | 66c | 151.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…0a6ebacked Yes | 71c | 151.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 54c | 148.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 55c | 143.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…b9e5backed Yes | 68c | 137.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 42c | 137.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 49c | 131.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 31c | 126.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 62c | 124.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 45c | 122.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 55c | 122.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 41c | 112.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 13c | 105.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…0a7fbacked No | 49c | 102.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 36c | 95.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 34c | 88.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 58c | 86.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 64c | 86.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 31c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 31c | 84.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 41c | 83.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…1ff9backed Yes | 36c | 82.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 80.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3f…1f2bbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 51c | 73.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…c8febacked Yes | 65c | 71.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 29c | 70.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 29c | 70.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…2f93backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 48c | 69.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 29c | 67.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 60c | 66.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 60c | 66.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed Yes | 51c | 66.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 66c | 65.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…a27ebacked Yes | 36c | 63.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 63.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 33c | 61.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 68c | 58.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…9d27backed Yes | 34c | 58.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…c9ccbacked Yes | 35c | 56.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…f616backed Yes | 36c | 55.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ef…e2a4backed Yes | 41c | 55.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 32c | 54.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 48c | 51.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.