Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe252d4349a3caf23bc4b7be8c372a23a0b60b87ddb79521caad741a00a823c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1176…57e1backed Yes | 0c | 17,829$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 481.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 34c | 335.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 332.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 269.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 14c | 261.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 33c | 239.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 234.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 223.67$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 13c | 216.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 216.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 208.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 33c | 204.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 32c | 199.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 34c | 189.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 55c | 181$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 28c | 159.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 38c | 156.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 19c | 156.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 71c | 137$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 134.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 34c | 133.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 21c | 128.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…c9ccbacked Yes | 24c | 124.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 12c | 111.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 104.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed Yes | 29c | 97.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…727cbacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 27c | 89.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 22c | 87.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 31c | 86.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed No | 68c | 86.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 18c | 84.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 75.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 29c | 75.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 14c | 71.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 21c | 71.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 61c | 69.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed Yes | 20c | 69.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 30c | 65.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 65.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 16c | 63.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 80c | 62.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 61.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 61.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 24c | 58.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 55.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 54.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 34c | 54.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 30c | 53.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 22c | 53.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 21c | 52.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…238cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 76c | 47.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 45c | 47.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 31c | 41.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 34c | 40.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…0f10backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 35.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3641…ab8ebacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb05c…f02fbacked Yes | 43c | 34.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…970dbacked No | 79c | 34.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…453dbacked No | 72c | 34.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60a…9b20backed Yes | 30c | 34.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…fea8backed No | 77c | 31.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 70c | 30.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 74c | 29.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 26.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…6555backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 79c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…1644backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…15f6backed No | 77c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.