Earnings · resolved market
Will Ford Motor (F) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb23268a1782cd0eb4c5d43e400f78a39030c7cf708c060a258f2334b3f9d77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 70c | 999.97$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.98 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed No | 32c | 903.24$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 69c | 703.25$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.47 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 18c | 693$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.26 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 28c | 421.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 30c | 400.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.68 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 17c | 399.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.48 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 73c | 281.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 25c | 240$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 228.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 77c | 225.45$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.58 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 73c | 224$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.44 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 21c | 150.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked Yes | 77c | 144.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 19c | 133.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 24c | 113$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 26c | 113$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 17c | 99.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 26c | 96.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 78c | 94.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 21c | 91.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 19c | 91.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…8443backed No | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 89.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 23c | 69.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…0f05backed Yes | 79c | 67.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -3.2wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 25c | 61.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed Yes | 77c | 48.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 24c | 48.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 76c | 46.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…bb54backed No | 64c | 43.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 26c | 40.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…534ebacked Yes | 79c | 38.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 73c | 32.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a8…1aecbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…84b3backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9bf5backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…560fbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.