Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd1fc039207d82e8f19f3d562a78a2f6b1093a606a701a89f3da3d026ef029d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 1c | 9,919$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 5,392$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,303$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.62 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 15c | 1,120$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.01 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 961.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 645.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 21c | 634.41$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 15c | 599.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 14c | 546.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 415.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 225.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 15c | 209.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 12c | 169.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 14c | 158$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 13c | 154.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 13c | 152.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 26c | 140.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 11c | 140.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 11c | 139.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 15c | 134.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…8515backed Yes | 7c | 134.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 25c | 129.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 14c | 121$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 14c | 97.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 89.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 76c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.