Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5a9689b99b3067c1c39d01a836ee75a886048a2a4523968eac1249f250f5da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 55c | 1,696$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.08 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 1,403$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 1,365$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed No | 63c | 1,044$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.41 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,031$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.52 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 47c | 919.85$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.96 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 39c | 834.94$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.82 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 65c | 812.1$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.69 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed No | 18c | 779.68$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 58c | 739.78$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.77 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 607.79$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.09 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 588.83$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 64c | 565.15$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.11 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 47c | 550.63$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.26 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 66c | 539.68$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.71 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 521.96$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 63c | 458.94$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 40c | 407.87$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.55 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 37c | 400.02$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.17 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 27c | 399.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 372.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 363.4$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed No | 54c | 308.52$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.68 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 266$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 28c | 249$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.44 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a5…98eabacked Yes | 41c | 241.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 50c | 240.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 238.98$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 41c | 236.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 79c | 227.64$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.67 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 43c | 225.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 36c | 222.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 43c | 212.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 41c | 201.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 58c | 191.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 191.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 176.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 171.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 164.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 40c | 162.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 161$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 157.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 52c | 151.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 34c | 144.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 40c | 140.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 126$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 47c | 125.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 62c | 120.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 112.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 37c | 112$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 111.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 34c | 109.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 58c | 105.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 72c | 105$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 104.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 73c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 36c | 99.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 98.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 37c | 97.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 31c | 97.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 94.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 40c | 86.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 82.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed No | 61c | 81.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 38c | 78.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 57c | 76.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 31c | 72.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 71.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 42c | 71.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…02babacked Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 76c | 66.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 65.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 37c | 65.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 40c | 64.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 49c | 64.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 25c | 63.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 63.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 42c | 61.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 55c | 61.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 37c | 60.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 33c | 57.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 57.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.