TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ef5…6684backed No4c3,122$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes52c2,314$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.0637532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked No2c1,985$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4296015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes30c1,451$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.954,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes42c1,413$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.9328925.3%73 W · 216 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c1,205$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No3c981.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes39c884.03$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.9347432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes42c809.54$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.9874926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No73c804.74$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.352,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes28c724.68$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.562326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd10…7544backed Yes71c649.26$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.263548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No73c630.16$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.442160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c625.89$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.392,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes44c600.83$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.9155336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No45c582.1$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.21,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No66c501$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.315,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0b…e169backed Yes21c488.86$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.145228.8%15 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No40c472.49$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.143,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c415.83$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.936,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes25c399.96$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.9818731%58 W · 129 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No71c392.28$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.0198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes35c379.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.413,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c363.4$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.655,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed No4c356.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1816129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes44c301.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No72c291.76$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.484,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c283.3$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes18c277.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.7729941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c269.74$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No45c267.79$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.635158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No33c260.5$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.31,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes33c255.55$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3410023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c254.45$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.163,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1721…3c59backed Yes32c241.49$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No56c237.97$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.281,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked No71c229.82$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1368338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes10c220$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.442253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes32c216$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No71c215.94$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.263,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes29c206.3$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.39921.2%21 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15256921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes29c192.61$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.311,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c188.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.862,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes75c172.42$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.482,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No70c171.84$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4940352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes67c171.13$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.752,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No72c164.41$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No76c160$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.61,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e71…afe6backed Yes29c159.54$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5427226.5%72 W · 200 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No48c159.03$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.852,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed Yes47c157.06$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.793450%17 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x536e…06d7backed Yes33c150.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+74.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0640226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No60c137.63$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2661752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5bc…8853backed Yes50c133.16$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.582030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No56c132.94$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.847,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes55c131.65$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7638655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…ea9abacked Yes26c129.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.872740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No32c126$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.784,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c126$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.563,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c124$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.863,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No72c122.36$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.481,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c119.52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.494,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c117.37$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.744,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c115.38$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.456,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb843…eac8backed Yes36c112.56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No69c112$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2851…d63cbacked No19c110.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.613444.1%15 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes30c110$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.430832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f3…afd7backed No71c108.63$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.548041.3%33 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No26c100.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.292,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c100.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.615,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7671031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7124732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde67…c144backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5614835.8%53 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c97.31$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes27c93.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3311624.1%28 W · 88 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x702e…4357backed Yes33c90.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5620832.7%68 W · 140 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes25c88.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.125935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes30c85.91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.794,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes24c85.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.712,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked No75c80.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.084537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes80c80$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166894.1%64 W · 4 L+12.7wins+0.19per pick75cpaid+25.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c78.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.249,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9282268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xad64…c614backed Yes78c76.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.421492.9%13 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.28per pick65cpaid+46.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked No34c75.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5420438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No74c74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.761,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes55c73.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.14933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No77c73$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2186949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a49…2b86backed Yes27c72.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.87742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No78c72.85$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.931,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes58c72.48$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7342820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ee…3368backed Yes26c72.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.522250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd8e…435cbacked No66c71.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid+32.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe27c…5da2backed Yes30c71.11$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.111650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c70$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.513,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb679…dbb1backed Yes29c68.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.471735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.