Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x789ada9c2e96f3eed0bbbe93f2fc5bf8d542dcba4c95da70a14654147c6b8d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ef5…6684backed No | 4c | 3,122$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 52c | 2,314$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.06 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 2c | 1,985$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 1,451$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 42c | 1,413$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.93 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 1,205$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 981.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 39c | 884.03$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.93 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 42c | 809.54$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.98 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 804.74$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 28c | 724.68$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.56 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 71c | 649.26$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.26 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 630.16$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.4 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 625.89$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 44c | 600.83$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.91 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 45c | 582.1$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 501$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 21c | 488.86$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.14 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 472.49$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 415.83$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 25c | 399.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.98 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 392.28$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.01 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 379.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 363.4$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 4c | 356.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 44c | 301.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.01 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 291.76$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 283.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 18c | 277.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.77 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 269.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 45c | 267.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 260.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 33c | 255.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.34 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 254.45$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1721…3c59backed Yes | 32c | 241.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 237.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 71c | 229.82$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.13 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 216$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 215.94$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 29c | 206.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 192.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 188.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 172.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 171.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 67c | 171.13$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 164.41$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 160$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 29c | 159.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 159.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 47c | 157.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed Yes | 33c | 150.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 137.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed Yes | 50c | 133.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 132.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 55c | 131.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 26c | 129.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 126$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 126$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 124$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 122.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 119.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 117.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…eac8backed Yes | 36c | 112.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 112$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 19c | 110.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 71c | 108.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 100.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 100.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 97.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 27c | 93.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 33c | 90.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 25c | 88.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 85.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 24c | 85.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 75c | 80.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 78.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…c614backed Yes | 78c | 76.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 65cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 34c | 75.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 55c | 73.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 77c | 73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…2b86backed Yes | 27c | 72.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 72.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 58c | 72.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed Yes | 26c | 72.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8e…435cbacked No | 66c | 71.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 30c | 71.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 29c | 68.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.