World Politics · resolved market
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) win 150 or more seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaff83fbb0148b8d62cbe2269dd6777261460aa26ac1b8104e8146f1fb5ab4c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,618 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5800…2bc2backed No | 4c | 1,259$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8c35backed No | 1c | 1,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 36c | 712$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 64c | 655$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 3c | 390.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked No | 41c | 176.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 8c | 129.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 64c | 119$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…380fbacked Yes | 24c | 109.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 50.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…2187backed Yes | 42c | 40.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 71c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) win 150 or more seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?this page
- Will Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) win between 120 and 134 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) win between 135 and 149 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) win less than 90 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.