Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb03894855bde91299685f64083f132c15c7bad3ff8cdbf887f600f996db87714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Passion UAof Team Falcons, Passion UA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed Passion UA | 25c | 7,267$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,454.46 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons | 47c | 4,316$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.04 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Passion UA | 48c | 2,559$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.68 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Team Falcons | 4c | 2,300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Team Falcons | 69c | 2,057$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Passion UA | 30c | 1,958$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.84 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Passion UA | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.45 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 1,028$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.6 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 63c | 858.35$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.97 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Passion UA | 18c | 800$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Passion UA | 22c | 643.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.35 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Passion UA | 31c | 643.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.71 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Passion UA | 6c | 606.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.72 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Passion UA | 7c | 604.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.76 | 559 | 51.9%290 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Passion UA | 14c | 600$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Passion UA | 32c | 530.68$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.27 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 805 | 43.9%353 W · 452 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Passion UA | 42c | 440.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.48 | 569 | 48.7%277 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Passion UA | 10c | 375.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.97 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Passion UA | 40c | 337.26$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.14 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Passion UA | 32c | 294.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.9 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Team Falcons | 75c | 289.43$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Team Falcons | 71c | 279.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Passion UA | 77c | 224.49$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Team Falcons | 51c | 215.28$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Passion UA | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked Team Falcons | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Passion UA | 11c | 159$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.11 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Passion UA | 55c | 137.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Passion UA | 18c | 121.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Passion UA | 20c | 116.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.02 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Passion UA | 13c | 110$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…7603backed Team Falcons | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Team Falcons | 63c | 86.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Passion UA | 22c | 53.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc420…eb1bbacked Passion UA | 32c | 52.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed Team Falcons | 61c | 43.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Passion UA | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Passion UA | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…007dbacked Passion UA | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA (BO3)Team Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.