Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x882e8b1174e536feabee071a07677de9d3b0a26f1cf1dc278956ecfa3c650962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Passion UA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Passion UA | 12c | 36,185$4,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,428.31 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Passion UA | 13c | 5,412$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.41 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Passion UA | 12c | 5,250$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.91 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Passion UA | 13c | 5,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Passion UA | 6c | 3,804$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.58 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Passion UA | 6c | 3,305$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.39 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Passion UA | 6c | 3,052$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…2690backed Passion UA | 18c | 2,577$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Passion UA | 13c | 2,406$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Passion UA | 12c | 2,401$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Passion UA | 13c | 2,256$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Passion UA | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Passion UA | 9c | 1,500$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Passion UA | 14c | 1,444$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Passion UA | 6c | 1,096$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Passion UA | 12c | 834.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Passion UA | 9c | 782.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Passion UA | 15c | 660$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Passion UA | 13c | 640.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…9f77backed Passion UA | 8c | 633.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Passion UA | 6c | 600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Passion UA | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Passion UA | 5c | 574.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…18ffbacked Passion UA | 6c | 537.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Passion UA | 7c | 450.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Passion UA | 11c | 416.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Passion UA | 6c | 407$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Passion UA | 4c | 326.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Passion UA | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Passion UA | 7c | 262.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…5c5bbacked Passion UA | 8c | 258.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Passion UA | 6c | 234$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Passion UA | 12c | 177.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Passion UA | 13c | 174.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…c34dbacked Passion UA | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Passion UA | 12c | 160.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Passion UA | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Passion UA | 11c | 135.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3d…80e0backed Passion UA | 13c | 119.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc420…eb1bbacked Passion UA | 13c | 117.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Passion UA | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…64a6backed Passion UA | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…9c0bbacked Passion UA | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Passion UA | 13c | 101.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Passion UA | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…42c4backed Passion UA | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Passion UA | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Passion UA | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA - Game 2 WinnerPassion UA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.