Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0437632108fb2ff55840f632d1d4269fbc2f51b53c1d2406a75a694c53cc92f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 330.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 58c | 202.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 190.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 179.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 55c | 175.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 115.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 109.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 70c | 94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 78c | 91.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 56c | 89.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 87.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 19c | 78.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 77.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 75.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 63.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 61.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1114…c150backed Yes | 51c | 60.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 73c | 60.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 58.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 58.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 56.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 55.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 71c | 52.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 49.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 63c | 46.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 60c | 45.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 41.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 41.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 40.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 41c | 36.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 35.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 43c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 30c | 34.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 31.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 64c | 29.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 35c | 29.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…f40cbacked Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 60c | 26.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 70c | 25.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 39c | 25.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 25.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 68c | 24.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 20.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 70c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 53c | 18.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 61c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 71c | 17.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.