Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb05e8de7e538e7c94e85db78b15d10809d90cd75a66a70a4d6b2861218d3c3ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 915.24$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 372.23$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…c35fbacked Yes | 48c | 320$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 45c | 308.48$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 227.38$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 55c | 223.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.08 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 175.53$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 174.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 62c | 141.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 112.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 92.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 58c | 82.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 66.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 59.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 43c | 57.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 50.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 61c | 48.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…6d5abacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 42.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 52c | 38.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.