Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2541495f8864f24f84496e0c9618aec19859f78781d160fbb9b8e44ecb67d724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 865.94$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.76 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 713.91$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 435.46$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 32c | 371.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 7c | 291.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 31c | 255.61$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 229.61$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 56c | 179.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 148.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 145$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 124.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 115$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 55c | 103.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…9b21backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 99.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 98.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 96.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 93.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…7c01backed Yes | 55c | 89.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 53.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 53.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 64c | 50.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 47c | 49.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 62c | 48.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 34c | 44.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 36.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 32.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 27.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…1eacbacked Yes | 44c | 26.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 66c | 25.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 19.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 19.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 19.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 63c | 18.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 72c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 64c | 16.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.