NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0803e5e98110cf51fd5f7f7745d2bfa837c5858bf67f5f4d2b92323b4f9f06d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Chargers, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colts | 49c | 3,125$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.75 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Chargers | 50c | 2,737$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.5 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Colts | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Chargers | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Chargers | 52c | 1,813$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.72 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Colts | 48c | 1,503$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.84 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Chargers | 51c | 811.01$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.15 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Colts | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Colts | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Chargers | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Chargers | 51c | 335$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…501bbacked Colts | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colts | 49c | 174$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chargers | 50c | 68.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Colts | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)this page
- Colts vs. ChargersColts won
- Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Over won
- Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.