NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5ba39f363d8b4361868957bbdffa3589b9310af1e380202720f7efe28ef520f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Colts, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf6a…9821backed Colts | 42c | 14,797$6,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,582.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +110%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…f249backed Colts | 42c | 9,405$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,454.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6242…b9f7backed Chargers | 58c | 1,901$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143e…fbcdbacked Chargers | 58c | 1,325$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…5f32backed Chargers | 58c | 1,028$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Colts | 42c | 992.41$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Chargers | 58c | 862$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.96 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…0759backed Chargers | 58c | 819$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…6da1backed Chargers | 58c | 754$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…d73dbacked Chargers | 58c | 747$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4d1dbacked Chargers | 58c | 715$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1598…9d9cbacked Chargers | 58c | 704$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Colts | 46c | 699.88$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.73 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f26…2819backed Chargers | 58c | 673$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…ad20backed Chargers | 58c | 654$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929b…b1a7backed Chargers | 58c | 651$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc422…8937backed Chargers | 58c | 637$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b08…f997backed Chargers | 58c | 607$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ed…6a38backed Chargers | 58c | 565$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…3816backed Chargers | 58c | 515$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbe…41e9backed Chargers | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb632…6bddbacked Chargers | 58c | 493$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10c…36d6backed Chargers | 58c | 480$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6e…8eaebacked Chargers | 58c | 468$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd12c…3aaebacked Chargers | 58c | 461$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…b63dbacked Chargers | 58c | 458$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Chargers | 54c | 420$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…a788backed Chargers | 58c | 372$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…8289backed Chargers | 58c | 350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…dfe1backed Chargers | 58c | 349$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…98e7backed Chargers | 58c | 342$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec50…669bbacked Chargers | 58c | 320$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab7…c0f7backed Chargers | 58c | 315$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489e…aa86backed Chargers | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49f…05b9backed Chargers | 58c | 297$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…e493backed Chargers | 58c | 282$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…542dbacked Chargers | 58c | 279$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8c…a8cabacked Chargers | 58c | 274$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…92c6backed Chargers | 58c | 270$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…2f1fbacked Chargers | 58c | 270$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…9d09backed Chargers | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6347…bd17backed Chargers | 58c | 241$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…9af9backed Chargers | 58c | 238$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97f…78f0backed Chargers | 58c | 236$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3e…8476backed Chargers | 58c | 229$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Chargers | 55c | 227.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…8128backed Chargers | 58c | 225$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4d…5bb9backed Chargers | 58c | 223$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9922…5310backed Chargers | 58c | 212$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bde…e58fbacked Chargers | 58c | 204$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6e…71ebbacked Chargers | 58c | 201$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…1a6dbacked Chargers | 58c | 201$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…2533backed Chargers | 58c | 196$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Chargers | 58c | 194.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…f1c3backed Chargers | 58c | 193$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…b898backed Chargers | 58c | 187$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7421…7378backed Chargers | 58c | 184$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ca…69c0backed Chargers | 58c | 179$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…36aabacked Chargers | 58c | 177$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e0…6aeabacked Chargers | 58c | 171$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…efdebacked Chargers | 58c | 154$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5590…f06fbacked Chargers | 58c | 151$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…e9bebacked Chargers | 58c | 143$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…6ca8backed Chargers | 58c | 133$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…c2e5backed Chargers | 58c | 124$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…d9c9backed Chargers | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0e…ef14backed Chargers | 58c | 118$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bd…0e1abacked Chargers | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…46d2backed Chargers | 58c | 102$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…f6adbacked Chargers | 44c | 84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde5f…c121backed Chargers | 58c | 81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Colts | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Colts | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…a940backed Chargers | 58c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Chargers | 55c | 38.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Colts | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)this page
- Colts vs. ChargersColts won
- Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Over won
- Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Colts won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.