NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8471dfb9542604e5e524539edefa6bf264a08ef0ebd07d9f55f83b7ee4dddb1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 48c | 10,432$4,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,988.51 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 53c | 9,690$5,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,510.74 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 51c | 9,433$4,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,579.87 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 9,398$4,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,598.82 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 4,918$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.94 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Under | 46c | 4,348$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 51c | 2,295$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.44 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Under | 48c | 2,289$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.72 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 51c | 2,127$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.77 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 2c | 2,100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.5 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 50c | 2,030$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 47c | 1,690$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.1 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 53c | 1,690$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.1 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 313.96$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.75 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 294.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…7da2backed Over | 49c | 209.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 146.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…b042backed Under | 51c | 143.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…7e85backed Under | 51c | 142.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…970fbacked Under | 51c | 118.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…f154backed Under | 51c | 117.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…fcb5backed Over | 49c | 107.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b73…7269backed Over | 49c | 104.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…d2d7backed Over | 49c | 104.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…4ae4backed Over | 49c | 89.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77a…b229backed Under | 51c | 86.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…a827backed Under | 51c | 85.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394d…bd39backed Over | 49c | 84.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…acafbacked Under | 51c | 78.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…1231backed Over | 49c | 78.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 52c | 77.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…3eb3backed Over | 49c | 68.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9d…d453backed Over | 49c | 66.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f82bbacked Over | 49c | 65.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cea…7f65backed Over | 49c | 58.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…bd5abacked Over | 49c | 54.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…4cbdbacked Under | 51c | 51.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…87f9backed Over | 49c | 51.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe014…939ebacked Under | 51c | 51.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…7bd8backed Under | 51c | 49.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6651…33b8backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fea3backed Under | 51c | 47.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…01f6backed Under | 51c | 41.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 50c | 39.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…c733backed Under | 51c | 38.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…256bbacked Under | 51c | 38.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e1…44e5backed Under | 51c | 36.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…1906backed Over | 49c | 34.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3661…0e71backed Under | 51c | 33.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…38d3backed Over | 49c | 32.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…8c18backed Over | 49c | 32.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…018ebacked Over | 49c | 21.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…f1e6backed Under | 51c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5551…86bbbacked Under | 51c | 19.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 48.5this page
- Colts vs. ChargersColts won
- Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Colts won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.