NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bef6e464d018fc00bfeacd2c185361624df54b2c525700690fc1bb8b64a132e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Chargers, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colts | 47c | 41,015$19,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,848.4 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Chargers | 53c | 36,021$19,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,090.73 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Colts | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Chargers | 51c | 11,576$5,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,903.98 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Chargers | 54c | 10,769$5,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,815.26 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chargers | 51c | 3,482$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.14 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Colts | 50c | 3,010$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Chargers | 53c | 1,674$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.22 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Chargers | 54c | 1,234$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.79 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Chargers | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Colts | 46c | 1,057$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.59 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Chargers | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Chargers | 49c | 806.82$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.34 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chargers | 51c | 746.05$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.49 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Chargers | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Chargers | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Chargers | 54c | 218$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Chargers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Colts | 48c | 198.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.79 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Colts | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Colts | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Chargers | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Chargers | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed Chargers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Chargers | 52c | 91.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Colts | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Colts | 49c | 73.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Chargers | 52c | 68.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Chargers | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0488…aea5backed Colts | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Chargers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Chargers | 50c | 35.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Colts | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…e676backed Chargers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Colts | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked Colts | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)this page
- Colts vs. ChargersColts won
- Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Over won
- Colts vs. Chargers: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.