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Europa Conference League · resolved market

AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,346
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,931

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,346 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Under23c1,197$278 inLost-$277.532,79534.8%973 W · 1,822 L-86.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Over18c1,000$180 inWon+$820.138834.1%30 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under75c734.07$553 inLost-$552.652,73840.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over49c406.83$199 inWon+$207.661,89538.7%734 W · 1,161 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under43c362.29$157 inLost-$15733442.5%142 W · 192 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa991…0935backed Over70c356.26$249 inWon+$106.886080%48 W · 12 L+13.7wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+67.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under30c253.01$76 inLost-$75.965943.9%289 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5501…7c5bbacked Over16c125$20 inWon+$1051100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5101…c159backed Over19c106.74$20 inWon+$86.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+137.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6844…7633backed Over47c101.17$48 inWon+$53.621973.7%14 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+72.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under31c75$23 inLost-$23.2547036%169 W · 301 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over57c41.5$23 inWon+$18.0254353.8%292 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eef…5275backed Over38c26.36$10 inWon+$16.345664.3%36 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x968d…7537backed Over48c20.87$10 inWon+$10.853574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.