Europa Conference League · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1eb9a2214379634902cdb231d2e7bc651575f0f7bbd60168cecd27226f08456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 49c | 15,781$7,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,048.8 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 51c | 4,824$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.07 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 3,504$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.49 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Under | 50c | 2,774$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.66 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 50c | 2,499$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.51 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 53c | 2,454$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.97 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…b67dbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 51c | 1,743$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.76 | 725 | 50.2%364 W · 361 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,547$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.75 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Over | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 1,073$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.93 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Over | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.99 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…7b9bbacked Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Under | 57c | 931.18$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.26 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 51c | 832.85$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.2 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 45c | 767.8$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.51 | 251 | 41%103 W · 148 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 683.39$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.41 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 46c | 682.25$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.79 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 53c | 570.04$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.56 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 50c | 540.05$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.03 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 55c | 361.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Under | 57c | 302.4$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Under | 57c | 293.61$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 46c | 195.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7161…fcb0backed Over | 42c | 176.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Over | 49c | 159.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Under | 52c | 144$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 79c | 131.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 51c | 119.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 78c | 119.22$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 112.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Over | 51c | 78.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 23c | 70.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 64.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 632 | 49.1%310 W · 322 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 49c | 57.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Under | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 52c | 44.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 50c | 43.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Over | 50c | 40.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…2ecabacked Over | 50c | 40.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…e829backed Over | 51c | 39.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10af…2d06backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 46c | 38.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 49c | 36.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 35.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 49c | 34.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 495 | 55.4%274 W · 221 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 64c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Over | 48c | 30.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…13c8backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…e9cabacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 51c | 28.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 331 | 42.9%142 W · 189 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 51c | 20.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 51c | 20.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 51c | 19.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…15f8backed Under | 58c | 17.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 3.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: AFC Ajax O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: FC Sion O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 4.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 5.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: Team to AdvanceAFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)FC Sion won
- Spread: FC Sion (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.