TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
FC Sionof AFC Ajax, FC Sion
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,933 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed FC Sion48c2,969$1,419 inWon+$1,550.082,79534.8%973 W · 1,822 L-86.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf01d…fed2backed AFC Ajax37c1,114$412 inLost-$41210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d92…7822backed AFC Ajax29c689.66$200 inLost-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed AFC Ajax38c520.87$197 inLost-$197.331,89538.7%734 W · 1,161 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked AFC Ajax30c307$92 inLost-$92.141442.3%175 W · 239 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed FC Sion67c292.63$196 inWon+$96.5717252.9%91 W · 81 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed AFC Ajax45c246$111 inLost-$111.492,73840.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7150…6a8abacked AFC Ajax36c109.97$40 inLost-$39.593171%22 W · 9 L+6.3wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked AFC Ajax33c100$33 inLost-$32.563649.5%315 W · 321 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked AFC Ajax53c100$53 inLost-$52.58944.9%40 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed FC Sion65c95.84$63 inWon+$33.141,20047.4%569 W · 631 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FC Sion65c85.73$56 inWon+$29.621,79354.8%983 W · 810 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed AFC Ajax27c75.21$20 inLost-$20.472,43437.3%909 W · 1,525 L-9.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bf…f0ccbacked FC Sion71c65$46 inWon+$18.555259.6%31 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90f…4148backed AFC Ajax32c32.94$10 inLost-$10.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x968d…7537backed AFC Ajax55c18.21$10 inLost-$10.023574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.