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Europa Conference League · resolved market

AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,237
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,237 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Under43c4,380$1,893 inLost-$1,892.532,79534.8%973 W · 1,822 L-86.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16e…43afbacked Over48c1,718$817 inWon+$9011850%9 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over49c1,500$735 inWon+$7654143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under51c1,398$713 inLost-$713.461,89538.7%734 W · 1,161 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5a…8445backed Under4c1,250$47 inLost-$47.53834.2%13 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+73.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Over33c999.99$330 inWon+$669.993759.5%22 W · 15 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Over33c999.5$328 inWon+$671.418834.1%30 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad31…c93abacked Under4c784.77$31 inLost-$30.772927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over46c684.35$315 inWon+$369.553,24742.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L+4.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under37c584.47$216 inLost-$216.261,22245.3%553 W · 669 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over78c452$354 inWon+$97.7293341.4%386 W · 547 L-15.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Over33c409.69$136 inWon+$274.0124149%118 W · 123 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Under67c297.01$199 inLost-$19917252.9%91 W · 81 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over77c250.17$194 inWon+$56.4533442.5%142 W · 192 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over31c190.3$59 inWon+$131.141,20047.4%569 W · 631 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under55c183.4$102 inLost-$101.792,73840.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under67c159.58$108 inLost-$107.651,79354.8%983 W · 810 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over32c100$32 inWon+$68.563649.5%315 W · 321 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over30c97$29 inWon+$67.941442.3%175 W · 239 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over62c77.73$48 inWon+$29.6354353.8%292 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Under67c24.37$16 inLost-$16.3525248.8%123 W · 129 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5577…7d35backed Under71c17$12 inLost-$12.071154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick76cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.