Europa Conference League · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c32ada0d27bf9762a3dad02f49928266bda457b8e3ea43c2927105292f62ca6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52ed…8db7backed Over | 68c | 7,500$5,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 68c | 3,534$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.03 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 72c | 3,463$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.02 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 32c | 2,961$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.65 | 206 | 46.1%95 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…67bcbacked Under | 32c | 2,926$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebc…89c8backed Over | 69c | 2,900$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Under | 31c | 2,790$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.87 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 7c | 2,749$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.55 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 71c | 908$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.56 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 69c | 807.02$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.49 | 725 | 50.2%364 W · 361 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…7ddcbacked Under | 32c | 681$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d63…8b8cbacked Under | 31c | 618.45$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…3602backed Under | 31c | 588.57$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…c760backed Under | 32c | 538.31$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 73c | 535$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…3af9backed Under | 31c | 532.26$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 69c | 525$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 251 | 41%103 W · 148 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 30c | 515.64$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.69 | 1,041 | 48%500 W · 541 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 70c | 280.78$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7161…fcb0backed Over | 65c | 210.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…4c18backed Under | 32c | 188.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Over | 70c | 188.07$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 33c | 162.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Under | 31c | 153.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…13c8backed Under | 33c | 143$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 72c | 140.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 68c | 113$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 749 | 39.4%295 W · 454 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539c…29b1backed Over | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…ad52backed Over | 69c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Under | 35c | 74.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Under | 32c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 31c | 72.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…e004backed Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 495 | 55.4%274 W · 221 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 70c | 38.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f65…ec56backed Over | 69c | 28.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…2044backed Over | 71c | 27.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 70c | 27.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 72c | 21.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Over | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 2.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: AFC Ajax O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: FC Sion O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 3.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 4.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 5.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: Team to AdvanceAFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)FC Sion won
- Spread: FC Sion (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.