Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcb7a902c8bf4fad16310196ea48eccc74c5093ebd018226081b6e6ebe697bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AFC Ajaxof AFC Ajax, FC Sion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $416,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $437,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabff…f5fbbacked FC Sion | 0c | 302,233$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…b0b9backed FC Sion | 48c | 56,903$27,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,048.81 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed AFC Ajax | 55c | 22,532$12,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,104.74 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed AFC Ajax | 59c | 21,256$12,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,756.22 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.3wins | +0.45per pick | 48cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed AFC Ajax | 53c | 5,375$2,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.6 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Sion | 41c | 4,779$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.08 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked FC Sion | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked AFC Ajax | 53c | 3,591$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.41 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked AFC Ajax | 56c | 2,500$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.5 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked AFC Ajax | 54c | 2,207$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.18 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed AFC Ajax | 54c | 2,104$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.8 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed AFC Ajax | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…b67dbacked AFC Ajax | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked FC Sion | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked AFC Ajax | 51c | 1,722$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.93 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed FC Sion | 41c | 1,503$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.66 | 473 | 42.1%199 W · 274 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed FC Sion | 42c | 1,363$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked FC Sion | 40c | 1,253$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.3 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed AFC Ajax | 51c | 1,028$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.84 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked AFC Ajax | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 130 | 57.7%75 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed AFC Ajax | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed AFC Ajax | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed FC Sion | 35c | 776.71$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.03 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…08edbacked AFC Ajax | 49c | 521.58$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.01 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed AFC Ajax | 68c | 499.97$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked AFC Ajax | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed AFC Ajax | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Sion | 53c | 377.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked AFC Ajax | 49c | 369$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.19 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked AFC Ajax | 52c | 351.44$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed AFC Ajax | 62c | 349.59$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed AFC Ajax | 57c | 349.12$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.12 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed FC Sion | 42c | 282$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 412 | 45.6%188 W · 224 L | +25.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked AFC Ajax | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed AFC Ajax | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked FC Sion | 42c | 228.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 416 | 45.9%191 W · 225 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked AFC Ajax | 50c | 196$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…8a16backed AFC Ajax | 53c | 188.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a00…9ac7backed AFC Ajax | 53c | 188.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Sion | 50c | 186$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…1b9cbacked AFC Ajax | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…7158backed AFC Ajax | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed AFC Ajax | 55c | 169.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked FC Sion | 44c | 156$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…5e31backed AFC Ajax | 44c | 133.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed AFC Ajax | 51c | 115$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked AFC Ajax | 57c | 100.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked AFC Ajax | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed AFC Ajax | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…eb70backed AFC Ajax | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +76%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed FC Sion | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed FC Sion | 55c | 84.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked FC Sion | 41c | 83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked AFC Ajax | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed FC Sion | 48c | 70.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed AFC Ajax | 53c | 60.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed AFC Ajax | 46c | 59.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 429 | 57.1%245 W · 184 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…c480backed AFC Ajax | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked FC Sion | 55c | 52.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed AFC Ajax | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed FC Sion | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed AFC Ajax | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed AFC Ajax | 51c | 37.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed AFC Ajax | 51c | 37.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed AFC Ajax | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FC Sion | 42c | 31.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 632 | 49.1%310 W · 322 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed AFC Ajax | 51c | 28.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed AFC Ajax | 59c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed AFC Ajax | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed FC Sion | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 331 | 42.9%142 W · 189 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: AFC Ajax O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: FC Sion O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 3.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 4.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: O/U 5.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Sion: Team to AdvanceAFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)FC Sion won
- Spread: FC Sion (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.