MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0afc3e028b3caf74966d4ffc799df58b015fe17fdbee2266f9a0489f716c9e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 31c | 1,065$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.52 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 35c | 749.07$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.44 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 656.15$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 61c | 642.8$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 79c | 599.61$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.9wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 48c | 558.33$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.33 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 548.74$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.34 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 69c | 503.38$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.86 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 72c | 317.47$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.24 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 25c | 286.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 35c | 203$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 172.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 44c | 120.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 51c | 102.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 98.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 55c | 91.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Under | 17c | 88.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 25c | 73.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Over | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed Over | 74c | 57.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 48c | 40.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…1f6ebacked Over | 72c | 20.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels won
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosNo won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.