MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x770bfa65daf4e4420be21115d7cb647f109d4c2a3d7d191e93e0de95332630a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 52c | 4,874$2,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.88 | 1,113 | 49%545 W · 568 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 48c | 2,496$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.81 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 48c | 1,687$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.33 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Yes | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.99 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 48c | 1,225$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.23 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 48c | 1,100$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.15 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 47c | 536.23$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.51 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 48c | 304.62$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 49c | 249.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Yes | 50c | 198.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Yes | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…b596backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 48c | 189.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…0b74backed No | 49c | 162.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 49c | 142$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 48c | 139.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 46c | 99.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Yes | 46c | 75.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Yes | 49c | 61.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ba…7e32backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes | 54c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 48c | 39.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0116…fdf7backed Yes | 48c | 31.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…ec46backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7314…cf76backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4625…f7f6backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61c5…cf00backed Yes | 48c | 24.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d7…f8fbbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astrosthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.