Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on December 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0be3c17e93504c54fe4cecf00fa5aed121750bff3ec0e7fc188ae915ff50402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 77c | 1,579$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.67 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 53c | 1,251$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 44c | 932.55$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.11 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Yes | 25c | 427.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 52c | 385.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 16c | 360.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…1b83backed Yes | 38c | 356.63$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…2ed9backed No | 50c | 304.48$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked No | 48c | 299$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 296.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 32c | 229.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 9c | 177.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 59c | 169.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…737abacked Yes | 64c | 155.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 147.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 23c | 113.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…208bbacked Yes | 35c | 110.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…2209backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd531…d18bbacked Yes | 56c | 88.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 20c | 82.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked Yes | 29c | 76.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked No | 60c | 72.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 38c | 71.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked No | 68c | 71.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 52c | 57.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 41c | 46.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…8ff4backed Yes | 54c | 45.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…bb08backed No | 79c | 44.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d1…f2f6backed Yes | 67c | 43.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 44c | 43.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 61c | 35.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c3…dbf7backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Yes | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…a7c8backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…b139backed Yes | 45c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…f144backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on December 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on December 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on December 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.