Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on December 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0850988db474f6a1dedb5f4d6e43554812c585f8aaf7782c87c470cdcbea84a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 77c | 656.34$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.17 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked No | 60c | 619.29$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 50c | 437.44$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 44c | 349.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.19 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 54c | 340.15$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.81 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 63c | 317.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 73c | 267.26$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 49c | 170.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 45c | 169.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 37c | 160.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 79c | 158.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 35c | 124$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 109$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 34c | 101.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…7b58backed Yes | 35c | 99.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…2209backed Yes | 33c | 98.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 44c | 91.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…caf7backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd531…d18bbacked Yes | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…437cbacked Yes | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 75c | 48.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…8ff4backed Yes | 46c | 43.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked Yes | 50c | 42.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd2…2dd6backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…6168backed Yes | 36c | 32.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 47c | 32.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…b139backed Yes | 38c | 27.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…208bbacked No | 60c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…b00ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…bb08backed Yes | 66c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on December 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on December 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.