Portland Pilots vs. San Francisco Dons

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0fe301cb840b177b03d3ff0c29a091bec00909f906e1f1368ebbe9e1da38a5e

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: San Francisco Donsof Portland Pilots, San Francisco Dons
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,505 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x507e…beaebacked San Francisco Dons	78c	11,815$9,258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,557.45	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed San Francisco Dons	66c	4,953$3,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,703.77	123	54.5%67 W · 56 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Portland Pilots	30c	4,570$1,381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,380.72	464	46.8%217 W · 247 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Portland Pilots	45c	3,852$1,714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,714.22	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Portland Pilots	14c	3,687$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.03	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Portland Pilots	50c	1,915$963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.5	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked San Francisco Dons	49c	1,841$901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940.01	1,173	25.2%296 W · 877 L	-43.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked San Francisco Dons	64c	1,766$1,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$632.9	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Portland Pilots	39c	1,736$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.74	497	47.5%236 W · 261 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Portland Pilots	15c	1,599$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.9	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Portland Pilots	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.69	241	21.2%51 W · 190 L	+11.2wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+299%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Portland Pilots	11c	1,077$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.6	318	37.7%120 W · 198 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Portland Pilots	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.05	1,227	27.8%341 W · 886 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Portland Pilots	17c	726$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.46	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Portland Pilots	4c	713.42$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.09	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed San Francisco Dons	63c	639.61$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.61	484	62.8%304 W · 180 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x842e…d9f5backed Portland Pilots	69c	636.91$438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.08	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.25per pick	53cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Portland Pilots	40c	502.1$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.37	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b9…9719backed San Francisco Dons	75c	446.29$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.39	58	31%18 W · 40 L	-7.3wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Portland Pilots	41c	374.45$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.87	2,124	50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Portland Pilots	12c	363.22$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.92	369	42.3%156 W · 213 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Portland Pilots	50c	361.33$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.77	149	25.5%38 W · 111 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed San Francisco Dons	57c	306.39$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.69	735	49.1%361 W · 374 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked San Francisco Dons	38c	299.99$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2767…886abacked Portland Pilots	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Portland Pilots	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	402	52.7%212 W · 190 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Portland Pilots	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	35	20%7 W · 28 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+43%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe75a…d528backed Portland Pilots	44c	115.14$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Dons	59c	112$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.39	2,012	50%1,006 W · 1,006 L	+22.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Portland Pilots	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1,260	43.3%545 W · 715 L	+34.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Portland Pilots	13c	83.3$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	529	28.4%150 W · 379 L	-9.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x934f…f3b8backed Portland Pilots	44c	77.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.61	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	61cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Portland Pilots	27c	72.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	4,382	40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L	+23.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Portland Pilots	14c	72.86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	255	44.3%113 W · 142 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked San Francisco Dons	63c	72.71$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.12	459	53.8%247 W · 212 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6772…1fa4backed San Francisco Dons	61c	56.48$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.76	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+62.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed San Francisco Dons	63c	47.85$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb5f…4884backed San Francisco Dons	75c	45.94$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.37	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Portland Pilots	57c	40.95$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.45	64	28.1%18 W · 46 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-29%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Portland Pilots	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,667	36.4%607 W · 1,060 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked San Francisco Dons	63c	31.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.9	235	44.7%105 W · 130 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3568…c765backed Portland Pilots	38c	29.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	52cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Portland Pilots	42c	28.66$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	940	36.9%347 W · 593 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…a5cebacked San Francisco Dons	42c	26.58$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.41	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.23per pick	37cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x196a…376abacked Portland Pilots	47c	25.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a0…7303backed Portland Pilots	56c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a05…754abacked Portland Pilots	59c	21.56$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed San Francisco Dons	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	536	35.6%191 W · 345 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0110…af5dbacked San Francisco Dons	59c	18.72$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.72	91	53.8%49 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portland Pilots vs. San Francisco Dons

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market