Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb15bee4c502f780f100c552ab0c50b24bfedbd1156953848b876128e52772d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 38c | 830.21$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.75 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 40c | 431.67$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.35 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 391.78$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 41c | 341.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.96 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…12efbacked Yes | 69c | 285.89$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 251.3$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 238.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 201.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 152.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 70c | 151.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 149.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 47c | 148.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 44c | 144.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 135.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 33c | 121.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 57c | 110.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 98.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…b21cbacked Yes | 44c | 98.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 41c | 97.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 68c | 95.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 70c | 93.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 50c | 87.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 77.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…d1d2backed Yes | 37c | 73.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 54c | 67.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 66.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 25c | 65.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 60c | 63.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 63.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 40c | 59.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 68c | 56.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 59c | 53.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 67c | 50.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 48.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 71c | 47.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 47.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 44.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 53c | 42.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 45c | 42.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 38.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 62c | 38.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 29c | 34.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 35c | 33.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 27.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 70c | 25.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…e715backed No | 78c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 64c | 22.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 75c | 22.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 21.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 68c | 19.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…6bbcbacked Yes | 75c | 18.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 68c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.