Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd23b704e0359d241d89f54e061740d91ad5c3b4380384fb45b56138cad53ce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 52c | 483.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 61c | 429.4$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.29 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 33c | 348.23$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.73 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 308.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 20c | 282.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 53c | 276.16$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 38c | 253.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.02 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 73c | 202.93$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 191.61$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 182.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 38c | 164.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 162.55$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 19c | 161.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.69 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 74c | 160.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 146.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 142.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 69c | 140.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 132.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 127.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 126.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 78c | 110.68$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 44c | 97.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 90.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 62c | 79.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 77.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 77.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 22c | 75.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 71.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 36c | 66.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 64.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 30c | 61.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 60.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 59.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…d1d2backed Yes | 43c | 59.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…b3e2backed Yes | 28c | 49.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 30c | 48.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 47.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 47.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 46.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 46.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 37c | 42.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 63c | 38.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 37.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 55c | 34.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 55c | 34.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 63c | 29.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 25.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 62c | 25.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 23.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 21.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 63c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 68c | 17.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 67c | 16.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No | 67c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 75c | 15.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.54per pick | 70cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 14.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.