Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb15e0f8784d515ff39046ab0c144dfb40e440dbdc8deb3a7cfa1104371f75519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 261.49$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 259.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 233$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 193.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 173.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 162.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 162.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 146.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 66c | 130$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 43c | 120.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 104.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 43c | 93.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 90.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 23c | 88.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 86.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 83.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…366ebacked No | 59c | 82.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 64c | 77.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 71.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 44c | 63.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 66c | 61.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 58.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 23c | 57.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 57.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 44.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 42.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 42.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 38.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 35c | 35.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 66c | 35.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 65c | 33.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…6cc9backed No | 74c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…b728backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 71c | 28.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 26.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 26.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…32bfbacked Yes | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.