Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x476753cafa31d5d5d4434723f604db1d661f1713d3bcf19ccdd18fd0e2df0984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,177$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.83 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 734.65$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 55c | 547.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed Yes | 45c | 384.54$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.69 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 324.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 308.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 298.58$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 244.65$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.09 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 232.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 71c | 209.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 204.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 33c | 203.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 202.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 193.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 189.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 177.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 170.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 159$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…2a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 154$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 58c | 150.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 141.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 138.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 39c | 121.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 108.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 103.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 73c | 80.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 37c | 80.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 76.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 39c | 67.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 65c | 63.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…366ebacked Yes | 48c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 55.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 55c | 53.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 45c | 49.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 41c | 44.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 43.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 38c | 41.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 72c | 40.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 39c | 40.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 38.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 38.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 66c | 37.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0771…6d8dbacked No | 66c | 34.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 39c | 33.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 33.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 32.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…b728backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 42c | 31.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 39c | 30.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 29.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 27.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 60c | 25.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 22.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…4a4cbacked No | 53c | 22.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…40bdbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…7347backed No | 61c | 19.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd00b…f45abacked No | 62c | 16.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.