TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Stars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Starsof Capitals, Stars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,538

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,605 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Stars56c15,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,60042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Capitals44c11,062$4,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,867.2714538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Capitals46c8,992$4,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,12670547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Capitals46c7,900$3,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,621.1115953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Capitals46c7,254$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,360.121755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Stars53c7,040$3,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.638844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Stars53c7,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,29089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Stars54c6,802$3,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,151.5614253.5%76 W · 66 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Stars55c5,504$3,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.7730551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Capitals44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Capitals44c4,322$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.231546.3%146 W · 169 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Stars54c3,242$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.5457453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Stars53c2,931$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.1887447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a9…6324backed Capitals44c2,800$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7918…7f2abacked Stars56c2,800$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick49cpaid+57.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Capitals18c2,727$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.869949.5%49 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d5…e1e2backed Capitals47c2,300$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0811850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b6…3eacbacked Stars55c2,300$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0351250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Stars53c2,222$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.331,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Capitals47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1651045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Capitals46c2,127$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.250049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Capitals19c2,124$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006833.8%23 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Stars54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92063249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Stars54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Stars54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92054349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Stars56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.9912445.2%56 W · 68 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Stars55c1,849$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.1934845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Stars56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7131654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Capitals40c1,736$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Capitals48c1,667$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80075251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Stars78c1,616$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.81,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Capitals46c1,577$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.4389249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Stars80c1,575$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.5627143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Stars56c1,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66013946.8%65 W · 74 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Capitals47c1,279$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60013650%68 W · 68 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e46…5bf7backed Stars56c1,209$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.15450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Stars53c1,068$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.141,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Capitals21c957.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22e9…5e83backed Stars54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.933748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe662…3546backed Stars56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.861190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.1wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+67.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9794…1d5fbacked Stars56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.861668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25e0…04cfbacked Capitals45c892$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.41546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Stars54c843.07$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.7562249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Stars76c832.72$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.791,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Stars54c830$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.875155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Stars53c749.99$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.51,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Capitals28c695.65$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Stars55c620$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27930152.5%158 W · 143 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f79…7ed4backed Capitals46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2769645.8%44 W · 52 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1208…1feabacked Capitals47c600$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2824045%18 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb3…b7febacked Capitals51c493.73$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.13946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c3…ec20backed Stars57c455.56$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d58…40c1backed Capitals45c455.56$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5e9…93f3backed Capitals45c455.56$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1922…ee10backed Stars56c455.54$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Stars54c449.99$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20718750.3%94 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62e…cba8backed Capitals45c442.22$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1991250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c77…85ccbacked Stars57c442.21$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.15944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Stars55c405.54$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4922852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Stars55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6423653.8%127 W · 109 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5be…46cebacked Capitals24c349.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Capitals48c338.89$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.8423047.4%109 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6173…22a5backed Capitals45c319.31$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb80…62b1backed Stars57c319.3$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Stars53c313$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6430848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Stars59c300.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4812070.8%85 W · 35 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Stars52c300$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14335349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Stars52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14475946.6%354 W · 405 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Stars54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13838046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Stars54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13810145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Stars53c299.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14123741.4%98 W · 139 L-14.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Capitals35c289.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006139.3%24 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8116…7239backed Stars61c285.17$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1711144.1%49 W · 62 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Stars67c283$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.831,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Stars53c275.75$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.648748.3%235 W · 252 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Capitals46c267.35$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9937847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7f…4cd8backed Stars56c246.43$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.432454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Capitals49c242.66$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205844.8%26 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Stars53c234.63$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.281330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Stars53c226.42$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.423644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Capitals46c220$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.15954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Capitals44c216.11$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1860741%249 W · 358 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Stars55c215$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.531,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed Stars46c210$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.714053.6%75 W · 65 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Stars54c210$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.620147.3%95 W · 106 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Stars79c204$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8461848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc394…489cbacked Capitals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8790…f407backed Capitals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb003…6345backed Stars56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa7…2838backed Capitals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7942…bd59backed Capitals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655d…b525backed Stars56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5307…bae4backed Stars56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5e…6943backed Stars56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4688…af37backed Stars56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17c3…7c07backed Capitals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+28.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe407…d71abacked Stars56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…cd12backed Capitals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ae…301dbacked Stars56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc742…1d37backed Capitals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.