TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe662…3546

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NHL, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 63 out of 100; worst Tennis at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT1190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.1wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+67.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$14.35
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$13.77
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$15.93
Avalanche vs. Kingsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$9.35
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$293.76
Kings vs. Sharksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$175
Capitals vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$392.86
Jets vs. Wildbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$490
Red Wings vs. Bluesbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$765Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$735
Flames vs. Maple Leafsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$382.66
Capitals vs. Penguinsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+66.3%+$9.94
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Raptors vs. Bullsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$11.32
Grizzlies vs. Sunsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$340.74
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$700
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$90.64
Pacers vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$19.44
Kings vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$28.13
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Cavaliers vs. Celticsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Rockets vs. Raptorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$224.64
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+117.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+127.3%+$25.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+40.8%+$19.33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.