TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jacketsof Maple Leafs, Blue Jackets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$773,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$788,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $773,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 351 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Maple Leafs47c476,286$223,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223,233.559340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Blue Jackets53c117,446$62,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,199.6915953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blue Jackets53c98,848$52,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,165.271,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Blue Jackets53c88,770$47,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,621.921652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Blue Jackets53c59,353$31,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,804.31,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Blue Jackets51c34,451$17,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,881.134452.3%23 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs48c34,198$16,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,415.0688151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Blue Jackets52c25,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,00025449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Blue Jackets53c25,000$13,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,7504264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Blue Jackets54c22,000$11,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,12036242%152 W · 210 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Blue Jackets54c17,583$9,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,088.182369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Blue Jackets53c17,500$9,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,22531546.3%146 W · 169 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Maple Leafs49c17,411$8,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,550.0630848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs0c13,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Maple Leafs47c11,111$5,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,222.1721850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jackets52c10,422$5,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,993.641,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Maple Leafs48c10,417$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0005648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Maple Leafs47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.9925446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Maple Leafs1c9,778$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7818520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Blue Jackets52c8,995$4,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,317.5370547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Blue Jackets53c7,500$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5256737.3%25 W · 42 L-9.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Blue Jackets53c6,684$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.4441246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc09…95e2backed Maple Leafs0c5,845$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Maple Leafs48c5,208$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5004067.5%27 W · 13 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+29%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6253…20a6backed Blue Jackets54c5,035$2,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.14447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Blue Jackets52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40030447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Blue Jackets53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.9724945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Maple Leafs49c4,710$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.93246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Blue Jackets53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Maple Leafs49c3,933$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.2362249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blue Jackets72c3,922$2,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.441,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc2…b145backed Blue Jackets51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.571154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Maple Leafs1c3,875$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.342504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Maple Leafs46c3,368$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.5114538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Maple Leafs48c3,127$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.2237847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Maple Leafs47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.9930552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Blue Jackets52c2,885$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.6227048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Maple Leafs48c2,470$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.657453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Maple Leafs27c2,271$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.9129319.8%58 W · 235 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs48c2,135$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.7169550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs47c2,003$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.3563249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a6…69c5backed Maple Leafs49c2,002$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40075251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Blue Jackets53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed Blue Jackets53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94012041.7%50 W · 70 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Blue Jackets54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92011946.2%55 W · 64 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Maple Leafs47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94034845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Blue Jackets53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94012445.2%56 W · 68 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Maple Leafs47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94054349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Maple Leafs48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9997651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x693a…c423backed Maple Leafs49c1,998$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f0…135abacked Maple Leafs49c1,998$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Maple Leafs50c1,947$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.861,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba81…9710backed Blue Jackets52c1,886$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa67…1457backed Blue Jackets52c1,883$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.69250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce60…af0bbacked Blue Jackets52c1,883$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jackets65c1,794$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.9392848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Maple Leafs48c1,794$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.8987447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Blue Jackets53c1,760$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.4430946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Blue Jackets53c1,700$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79961959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Maple Leafs1c1,550$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111016.9%7 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x594f…392cbacked Blue Jackets52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7201266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdda2…4375backed Maple Leafs47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.973650%18 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Maple Leafs48c1,462$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.749250%46 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdad2…98c6backed Blue Jackets70c1,209$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Blue Jackets48c1,165$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.856649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Blue Jackets74c1,161$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.5785464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Maple Leafs29c1,137$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.8640550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs46c1,125$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.32,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb3…285dbacked Maple Leafs47c1,100$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe4…5c4fbacked Maple Leafs47c1,090$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.214949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46c…b32dbacked Maple Leafs48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c8…5c6bbacked Maple Leafs19c1,035$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Maple Leafs49c1,024$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.8458841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Blue Jackets52c1,010$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.86543.1%28 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x197b…818ebacked Blue Jackets53c1,009$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.235350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Maple Leafs47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47066951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Blue Jackets53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Blue Jackets53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4705856.9%33 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Maple Leafs48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Maple Leafs53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Maple Leafs52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5208536.5%31 W · 54 L-11.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdb42…0b87backed Blue Jackets53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs30c972.9$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.111,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9844…5e6cbacked Blue Jackets52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.542441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Maple Leafs48c929$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.827152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Maple Leafs17c849.29$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.689636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Blue Jackets53c837.71$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.7221755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9769…7cd7backed Maple Leafs47c831.91$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-76.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blue Jackets43c789.44$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.981,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b01…0aa5backed Maple Leafs26c769.53$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.191258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d4c…62b0backed Maple Leafs47c758.3$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ad…f25cbacked Blue Jackets57c758.29$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.291560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x660d…2e08backed Maple Leafs49c714.29$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x935d…151fbacked Blue Jackets52c700$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Maple Leafs48c667.18$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2519942.7%85 W · 114 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Maple Leafs48c654.99$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.41,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Maple Leafs48c643.97$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Maple Leafs48c629.06$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.9515646.2%72 W · 84 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25e0…04cfbacked Maple Leafs48c622.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.