Fifa International · resolved market
Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb16d2322aa09a5e9f2db6e1384ee3fb17f7bcdd2aa39fd86cd0a16280e6beaae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 5,180$3,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,103.41 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 2c | 1,496$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 25c | 1,000$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 34c | 750$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 36c | 707.36$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.23 | 143 | 23.8%34 W · 109 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 24c | 638.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.13 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 29c | 606.75$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 36c | 542.1$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.09 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 54c | 536.04$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.78 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 34c | 499.98$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 33c | 499.93$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.95 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 471.25$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.43 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Under | 62c | 413.93$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.63 | 241 | 44.8%108 W · 133 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Under | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Over | 33c | 365.93$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.17 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 12c | 301.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 35c | 287.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 328 | 55.8%183 W · 145 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 66c | 267.55$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.2 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Over | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 74c | 238.58$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.84 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 35c | 165.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 67c | 152.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Over | 35c | 103.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 35c | 92.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 89.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…6e9dbacked Under | 66c | 75.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 64c | 69.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 64c | 69.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 65c | 68.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 36c | 48.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 60c | 47.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 43c | 46.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…87e5backed Under | 61c | 45.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 200 | 67.5%135 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 64c | 42.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf792…b9e6backed Under | 64c | 31.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…58e8backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…6813backed Under | 58c | 29.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 53c | 25.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 341 | 44.3%151 W · 190 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Switzerland won
- Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)Germany won
- Switzerland vs. Germany: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 1.5Over won
- Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 2.5Over won
- Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.