Spread: Germany (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e9ba734fce400b1a75ebc5e37f2f9394c517c877866bf3308fa030add1efd14

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Switzerlandof Germany, Switzerland
Resolved: Mar 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $88,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,650 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1a87…4e00backed Germany	19c	23,000$4,370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,369.98	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Germany	20c	20,000$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,999.99	93	23.7%22 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Switzerland	75c	13,477$10,108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,369.22	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Switzerland	80c	8,460$6,762 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,698.21	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Switzerland	74c	6,333$4,681 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,651.87	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Germany	25c	2,785$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.57	214	44.9%96 W · 118 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Germany	20c	2,759$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.21	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-44%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Switzerland	74c	2,525$1,868 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$656.41	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Germany	26c	2,477$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.49	465	36.1%168 W · 297 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Germany	22c	1,231$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.05	143	23.8%34 W · 109 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-28%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Germany	26c	1,154$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	31cpaid	-79%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ce5…af2ebacked Germany	25c	1,035$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.64	71	43.7%31 W · 40 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Germany	25c	985.43$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.1	246	53.3%131 W · 115 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Germany	25c	970$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.5	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Germany	24c	969.77$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.69	368	50.3%185 W · 183 L	+9.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Germany	25c	934.37$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.82	237	49.8%118 W · 119 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6789…6302backed Germany	26c	856.85$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.78	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Germany	24c	850.7$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Switzerland	80c	577.42$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.5	225	51.6%116 W · 109 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Germany	19c	542.97$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.94	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Switzerland	74c	540.7$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.64	740	34.1%252 W · 488 L	-36.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Germany	25c	499.99$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Germany	25c	437.94$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.11	149	48.3%72 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Germany	24c	410$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b34…c545backed Germany	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Germany	23c	383.28$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.79	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Germany	25c	378.96$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.74	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad98…8733backed Germany	22c	354.34$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.57	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Germany	23c	347.83$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	181	28.2%51 W · 130 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Germany	19c	332.99$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.27	199	35.2%70 W · 129 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Switzerland	74c	270$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.2	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Germany	26c	263.58$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.53	255	54.5%139 W · 116 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Germany	26c	250$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9691…c6e7backed Germany	25c	219.99$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	40	35%14 W · 26 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9759…cb52backed Germany	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-9.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Germany	26c	201.85$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.69	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Germany	26c	200$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Germany	26c	192.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6d…71b4backed Germany	22c	190.91$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Germany	22c	160.28$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.82	161	16.8%27 W · 134 L	-16.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Germany	22c	142.28$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	72	40.3%29 W · 43 L	+5.6wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Germany	21c	93.49$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7c…82f2backed Germany	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Germany	22c	73.41$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.15	101	53.5%54 W · 47 L	+8.2wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Switzerland	75c	71.44$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.77	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Germany	26c	69.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcff1…f8debacked Germany	34c	67.65$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	91	31.9%29 W · 62 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01dc…183ebacked Germany	26c	64.95$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.89	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Germany	28c	62$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.08	105	58.1%61 W · 44 L	+7.0wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d12…cc43backed Germany	59c	59.48$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	76	34.2%26 W · 50 L	-7.0wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x05d4…d308backed Germany	22c	57.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Germany	25c	54.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Germany	25c	54.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Germany	29c	52.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	246	54.1%133 W · 113 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Germany	28c	51$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	637	45.4%289 W · 348 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Switzerland	75c	46$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	-8.8wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-14%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Germany	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	105	34.3%36 W · 69 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Switzerland	77c	38.1$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.59	876	51.1%448 W · 428 L	+25.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x787a…9199backed Switzerland	74c	27.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	59cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca0b…3c12backed Switzerland	80c	26.54$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.31	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.31per pick	60cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe68f…58edbacked Switzerland	75c	25.59$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed Switzerland	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	87	66.7%58 W · 29 L	+12.6wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed Switzerland	75c	24$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	46	78.3%36 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	74cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca22…71a0backed Switzerland	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	59cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Switzerland	77c	19.58$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Switzerland	75c	15.47$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.87	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Switzerland	76c	14.15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.38	171	58.5%100 W · 71 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Germany (-1.5)this page
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)Germany won
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)Germany won
Switzerland vs. Germany: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 1.5Over won
Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 2.5Over won
Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 3.5Over won
Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 4.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Germany (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event