Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1b9402d1c8d6772c804a97d11bf3b57a00bfaa7b9bb11c0159abbe295a2e404
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 1,189$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 61c | 728.54$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.21 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 40c | 722.18$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 58c | 500$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.68 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 37c | 349.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 62c | 333.66$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.61 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 315$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 42c | 312.21$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 66c | 304.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 227.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 72c | 223.08$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 218.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 28c | 201.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 56c | 196.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 72c | 196.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 181.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 173.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 69c | 145.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 36c | 145.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 140.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 126.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 121.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 33c | 121.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 59c | 121.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 107.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 106$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 72c | 103.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 95.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 61c | 81.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 80.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 40c | 65.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 78c | 63.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 59.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 78c | 58.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…0642backed Yes | 66c | 58.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 57c | 56.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 33c | 56.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 29c | 54.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 29c | 51.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 32c | 49.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 67c | 47.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 47c | 46.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 41c | 43.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 33c | 39.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 74c | 39.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 36c | 38.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 69c | 36.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 62c | 35.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 62c | 34.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…358ebacked No | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd283…51ecbacked No | 37c | 33.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 39c | 28.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…91adbacked Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 51c | 24.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 54c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 72c | 22.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 74c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…5a1dbacked Yes | 62c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 62c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 66c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 66c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.