Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1ee0bcfdfe5ce3e6823b9196e669965f431628c4cd14b4f963087b91014d9fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 925.83$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 682.14$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 348$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 44c | 341.7$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.32 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 340$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 192.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 192.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 7c | 179.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 139.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 130.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 123.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 113.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 26c | 108.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 102.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 29c | 95.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 82.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 47c | 77.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 28c | 71.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…0ac6backed Yes | 35c | 71.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 71.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 67.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 65c | 61.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 57.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 55.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 68c | 51.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 49.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 44.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 42.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 33c | 32.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 32.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 68c | 26.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 25.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.