Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b0c2f655636a55b42c79f6bf5df658363ffecb49fb92f7f5fd88e37b5d46eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,535$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 44c | 469.55$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.12 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 370.18$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 309.94$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 230$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 217.28$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 58c | 202.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 186.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 181.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 169.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 142$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 139.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 111.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…bf31backed No | 57c | 87.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 40c | 86.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 85.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 49c | 80.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 57c | 79.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 56c | 75.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 62.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 37c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 55.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…0ac6backed Yes | 45c | 50.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 50.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 55c | 45.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 57c | 42.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 37.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 35.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 31.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 44c | 29.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 27.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 51c | 26.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 61c | 26.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 68c | 24.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 63c | 24.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 60c | 23.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 22.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.