Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb233d4dd3228f6949e5b7299c5687d85b5566f9492dabba00f385412ebf4db2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 2c | 4,843$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 1,456$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…542fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,018$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b7…c3e3backed Yes | 1c | 962.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 744.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 14c | 731.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7926…a4febacked Yes | 15c | 474.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 7c | 399.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 11c | 371.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 19c | 360.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 350$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 9c | 344.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 13c | 325.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 11c | 319.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 316.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 301.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd043…50c8backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…0d6abacked Yes | 15c | 295.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 13c | 273.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 273.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 269.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…18c7backed Yes | 13c | 266.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 80c | 249.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 237.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…ae0bbacked Yes | 13c | 230$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 11c | 220.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…888cbacked Yes | 13c | 219.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 218.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 204.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 14c | 199.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 185.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 10c | 183.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 11c | 177.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 170.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked Yes | 11c | 142.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 9c | 137.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 13c | 121.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 11c | 120.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…ae19backed Yes | 16c | 105.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…5289backed Yes | 13c | 96.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 22c | 93.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 91.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…4f62backed Yes | 16c | 87.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 16c | 81.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 19c | 54.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.